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Published on 09/05/2007 6:38 pm   (Last Updated 09/05/2007 6:38 pm)
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Season Wrapping Up
By Jesse Erdmann
There will be no playoffs in Mudville.  The Might Thunder have struck out.  The defending champs will be back in though, bring the total number of known participants to seven.  Miami holds the eighth spot, but has to sit on the sidelines and hope.  Maybe they can send Zinho and Diego Walsh on one game loans to Minnesota and California for the weekend.  And a wad of cash at Romario to go play for Puerto Rico for the weekend.  Short of that, they're just watching.  Like the Thunder will be once the playoffs start.  Le Sigh.

The Week in Review:

Thursday

Minnesota @ Vancouver - Martin Nash put the Thunder down in the 16th minute.  The Thunder got a few good chances, but that was about it.

Final: 0-1 Vancouver
My Prediction: 0-1 Vancouver

Friday

Rochester @ Montreal - Rochester looked surprisingly flat in this one.  Charles Gbeke scored two against his old team to lead the Impact to victory.

Fina: 0-2 Montreal
My Prediction: 0-1 Montreal

Minnesota @ Seattle - The last time the Thunder played in Seattle a previously scoreless Thunderer, Keisuke Ota, scored two goals in a game Minny was a little unlucky not to win.  This time around another previously scoreless Thunderer, Kyle Zenoni, achieved the same feat.  But the Thunder won!  Roger Levesque got a late lifeline in for Seattle.  The Sounders nearly repeated in snatching a draw from the jaws of defeat, but didn't quite pull it off.

Final: 2-1 Minnesota
My Prediction: 0-2 Seattle

Saturday

Portland @ Carolina - The Timbers, as appears to be a developing trend for them on the road, took few shots, but made them count. Bryan Jordan scored ten minutes from time to seal the deal.

Final: 1-0 Portland
My Prediction: 0-0

Puerto Rico @ Atlanta - I wish I had a chance to watch this game because it looks like it was something of a barn burner.  Machel Millwood and Warren Ukah scored in the first quarter hour for the hosts.  The rest of the half was relatively feisty with 19 fouls called and ended with David Hayes of Atlanta and Mauricio Segovia getting straight reds. This looked like it might work in the Islanders favor as shortly after the half they pulled one back through John Krause's first goal of the season for Puerto Rico.  Anthony Wolfe scored his first of the season within ten minutes of coming on as a sub to salt the victory away, however.  To conclude matters, Jeremie Piette got his second yellow and the red in stoppage time to kill off any hope the Islanders had of crawling back into the game.

Final: 1-3 Atlanta
My Prediction: 0-1 Atlanta

Sunday

Charleston @ Miami - Another match I'm sorry to not have watched.  I'm sure if the average Miamian had any idea the team existed they'd probably be sorry too.  Charleston looked set to kill off Miami's season scoring two goals in the first fifteen.  Stephen Armstrong and Aaron King were the scorers.  Miami stampeded right back with Zinho scoring in the 22nd and Eric Vasquez knocking home a PK in the 27th.  The Battery proceeded to get whistled almost every third minute for the entire match, committing 24 fouls on their own.  It was not the Battery's day, however, as Nico Mosquera netted in second half stoppage time to keep Miami alive heading in to this weekend.  Miami is finished with games for the regular season so will have to sit by and hope Charleston doesn't beat Puerto Rico this weekend and that Carolina doesn't win in Minnesota or California.

Final: 2-3 Miami
My Prediction: 1-0 Charleston

For the week that makes me 3-3with zero correct margins of victory and one perfect score.  For the season I'm now at 70-88 with 17 correct margins of victory and 15 exact scores.  The random number generator is 53-105.  Which apparently means I neglected to count one of my predictions sometime this season since there are only nine games left and there are 168 total games in the season.  Oh bother.  So, the absolute best I can do if I pick every game correctly this weekend and pick up a mystery win in the recount is 80-88, or 47.6%.  In contrast, the worst I could do is, 41.7%.  Both of which are better than the random number generators' 33.3%.  Whoo hoo!  I beat chance for the season!  What I'm hoping for is to come out at 45%, that would be reasonable for a league where it's almost impossible to know who's out with injuries and suspensions.

Rankings:

Rnk (+/-) Team        ( W- D- L) Last 5  Weekend    
 1  (+1)  Montreal    (13- 8- 5) (WWWLW) 2-0 vs. Rochester
 2  (+2)  Portland    (14- 8- 5) (DWWLW) 1-0 at Carolina
 3  (+2)  Atlanta     (12- 6- 8) (WDLWW) 3-1 vs. Puerto Rico
 4  (-3)  Seattle     (14- 6- 6) (DWWWL) 1-2 vs. Minnesota
 5  (-2)  Puerto Rico (10- 9- 8) (LWWWL) 1-3 at Atlanta
 6  (+2)  Vancouver   ( 9-10- 7) (DDLWW) 1-0 vs. Minnesota
 7  (-1)  Rochester   (11- 6-10) (WWWLL) 0-2 at Montreal
 8  (+2)  Miami       ( 9- 4-15) (LLLLW) 3-2 vs. Charleston
 9  (-2)  Carolina    ( 7- 8-11) (LWDWL) 0-1 vs. Portland
10  (+1)  Minnesota   ( 4-11-11) (DLLLW) 0-1 at Vancouver, 2-1 at Seattle
11  (-2)  Charleston  ( 8- 5-14) (LLLLL) 2-3 at Miami
12  ( 0)  California  ( 4- 7-15) (LLLLL) Idle

Predictions:

Wednesday

Atlanta @ Montreal - The current third and fourth placed teams squared off in Atlanta for the first match of the season for both teams.  That game finished a 2-2 draw and was actually a decent indication that these teams were relatively close in ability.  Both have qualified for the playoffs, and don't really have a lot to play for.  If Montreal wins both of their games and gets some help they might wind up with the regular season title, but it seems unlikely.  Atlanta would like to stay right where they're at in fourth, but realistically only need a point from their two matches to make that happen.  If they win both matches and Montreal were to lose their other match, Atlanta could wind up third in the standings.

My Prediction: 0-2 Montreal, the Silverbacks aren't a very strong road team.  EDIT: I see that Montreal did win 1-0, but I swear, prediction came before result.

Thursday

Carolina @ Minnesota - These two teams also met in their respective first weeks of the season, though it was the Thunder's second game.  That match finished a 1-1 draw.  Carolina, though two points out of the last playoff spot, has perhaps the best shot of the three eligible teams to make the post season with games at Minnesota and California.  It won't be easy coming off a 120 minute Open Cup loss 48 hours earlier.  Minnesota's only motivation is to not finish last in the league for the second consecutive season.  A win in this game would assure eleventh for them.

My Prediction: 1-2 Minnesota, this is it boys, time to fight for spots next season and wrap things up in a positive fashion.  Please?

California @ Seattle - The Victory are auditioning for spots on other teams, or MISL teams, or something one would have to assume.  Maybe not finishing last as a team means something to them, but its hard to say.  Seattle is trying to wrap up the season title, but like Carolina is coming of an emotional, tough, 120 minute loss to an MLS side in the Open Cup.  Seattle does have the edge in the season series having won the previous two meetings.

My Prediction: 1-1, Cali doesn't have enough to win, Sounders have just enough left in the tank to get a point.

Friday

Puerto Rico @ Charleston - Two bitter rivals face off in their regular season finale.  The Islanders won the two meetings on Puerto Rico while the first game in Charleston was a draw.  PRs motivation, other than beating a rival, is mostly to achieve a spot as the fourth or fifth seed to avoid a first round match up with one of the top tier teams thus far this season, though Atlanta is the only possible opponent that they haven't taken a point off of so far this season.  For Charleston, its much simpler, win or go golfing, or back to MISL, or bagging groceries, or whatever it is that the individual players do during the off season.

My Prediction: 2-2, the Islanders spoil Battery's ambitions.

Atlanta @ Vancouver - The first meeting between these two in Atlanta was the first loss, but fourth game, of Vancouver's 12 game winless streak.  The Silverbacks have been discussed and aren't any better on the road than they were earlier in this column.  Vancouver, after all of their mid streak moves, may be coming together in time to be dangerous in the playoffs.  Can they pull of the underdog repeat of last season?  Probably not, but they should probably try to keep their win streak going through the end of the season if they want to have a shot.

My Prediction: 1-2 Vancouver.

Saturday

Montreal @ Rochester - These two rivals have played twice in the preceding two weeks and a total of three times in August.  Montreal won all three meetings by a combined score of 5-0.  Montreal (now that I know they've won on Wednesday) will have a shot at the title and could put the pressure on Seattle and Portland on Sunday by going to the top on Saturday.  Rochester could take the season results so far as a sign that they need to win this game just to avoid having to play the Impact in the first round of the playoffs.  Or, they could just feel that it doesn't matter because they're due.  Who knows.

My Prediciton: 1-2 Rochester, the Rhinos get a measure of self-respect back heading in to next weekend.

Carolina @ California - It seems probable that Carolina will still need to win this game to get the last playoff spot.  It also seems that Cali will have given up the ghost, especially if Minnesota has indeed locked the Victory in twelfth spot.

My Prediction: 1-0 Carolina, RailHawks in the playoffs, thus ensuring seven of my eight pre-season playoff picks actually make it in.  Oh, how I wish that were more impressive.

Sunday

Seattle @ Minnesota - If things go as I have projected a Seattle win here and a Portland draw or loss in Vancouver gives the Sounders the regular season title.  Minnesota needs to send the fans off in style after two seasons of torture.  A win here, assuming the draw on Thursday, would give Minnesota an identical point total to the 2006 season, just with two less wins and six more draws.  It would also give them one more point at home than on the road.  One other ray of sunshine in the dark, the Thunder would have fewer losses than any other non-playoff team.

My Prediction: 1-3 Minnesota, I seriously screwed up the predictions above and the Sounders have absolutely no reason to field their top players.

Portland @ Vancouver - Portland, barring two Seattle wins on the weekend, will be in position to win the league with a win having the head-to-head and probably goal differential on their side against Montreal.  The Whitecaps could be able to sneak into the 4/5 pairing and avoid the top three, but it seems unlikely.

My Prediction: 1-1, when in doubt, draw.


Comments? Questions? Flamage? Send all to jesse@blueskysoccer.com.


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